The euro-skeptic (rather than Euroskeptic) German party Alternativ fuer Deutschland won almost 10% of the vote in the state elections in Saxony, coming in ahead of the Green Party. The win has been a big boost for the party, propelling it into the Saxon Landtag while the liberal FDP and far-right NDP drop out as they didn't win enough votes to clear the threshold for entry.
The rise of the AfD has been reported on elsewhere on how it could impact Angela Merkel's CDU and her EU policy (it's hard to imagine even 5 years ago so much interest being shown in a German state election). But I don't see the result as one that would pressure the CDU to take a more Euroskeptic stance. It's important to note two facts when thinking about the AfD's impact on the CDU: that the CDU has retained almost 40% of the vote, its percentage dropping only slightly since the last election, and the turnout was very low at 49%.
Concern over the "splintering of the right" in Germany is another angle that's being reported on, but it also looks a bit overblown - the last federal elections saw the economically right-wing FDP party lose all their seats, with the CDU the largest beneficiary - a huge consolidation on the right, at least federally. In some ways the AfD, with its economically right-wing positions, is starting to fill the political vacuum left by the decline of the FDP.
Of course, the AfD is not the FDP: it's a protest party and hard to pin down on many of its positions, but its leadership is on the economic right and it has attracted a socially conservative membership who may have been former CDU supporters disappointed that the CDU has become socially more centrist (though there are still plenty of socially conservative voices in the CDU too). Saxony is also a state that has seen support for the far-right NDP, a nationalist party that is periodically the subject of banning attempts. So it makes sense that the AfD took votes from the FDP and a small number from the NDP (not to mention that it would be more respectable to vote for the AfD than the nationalist NDP). Oddly for a protest party, it looks like those who voted for it in Saxony are largely satisfied with their own economic position.
The CDU has kept its distance from the AfD, leaving the Social Democrats and the Greens as its two possible coalition partners for the state government, and a similar stance is being taken on the federal level. Its euro-skeptic stance and protest party style makes it an unsuitable and probably unstable coalition partner, and a coalition with it could toxify the CDU when it is the biggest of the 2 big tent parties and is comfortable with coalitions with the centre-left. The rising profile of the AfD could boost the socially conservative and anti-transfer union voices in the CDU, but at the moment the AfD hasn't actually eaten into the CDU's vote to a significant degree. And it should be remembered that the CDU is in coalition with the Social Democrats at the moment - a party that would like to ease austerity in Europe - so Merkel's government is probably relatively insulated from the AfD's politics.
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Thursday, 4 September 2014
Thursday, 12 June 2014
A very Cameronian blunder
Since the election the backing for Juncker as the European Commission President has stiffened, from Angela Merkel to even European Left candidate Tsipras saying that Juncker deserves to get the job if he can get a parliamentary backing, because that's the democratic, parliamentary process. Set against this, Cameron's campaign against a Juncker presidency looks more and more misguided by the day. While the Netherlands, Sweden and Hungary are against Juncker, by leading such a prominent campaign against him, Cameron has probably made it more likely that Juncker will get the presidency.
Cameron tends to have a very short-term, tactical approach to politics, particularly when it comes to the EU. The big speech that was supposed to outflank UKIP clearly didn't - in fact, the more the Conservative party echoes UKIP, the better UKIP seems to do. Promising a renegotiation and an in/out referendum on the basis of the result hasn't done much to quiet his party on the matter either (with people now wondering if the referendum date of 2017 will be brought forward to 2016). When wielding the veto in December 2011, Cameron was able to strike the pose of a decisive leader with good Euroskeptic credentials, but the ability of the other countries to go on without the UK ended up showing how devalued a veto can be. (If the UK had taken part in the negotiations while holding on to the veto, it would have been able to shape the agreement and it's potential veto would have carried more weight towards the end of the process). This short-termist thinking is often traced back to Cameron promising to take the Conservatives out of the EPP as part of his platform for the party leadership.
Opposing Juncker's candidacy was always going to be risky. While the campaign might not have been as high profile as some would have wanted, it's difficult to name alternatives from outside the Europarty candidates - Lagarde has ruled herself out, and many of the others are serving Prime Ministers and Presidents. Pascal Lamy, director-general of WTO and formerly the chef de cabinet of Jacques Delors, is hardly a fresher name than Juncker when it comes to EU politics. More importantly, the European Parliament is set on getting one of its candidates in the job, and they can veto any nomination by the European Council. It's difficult to see any of these speculative alternatives giving up their jobs (or present themselves as willing to give up their premierships/presidencies to their national electorates), to place themselves in the middle of a power struggle between the Parliament and the Council.
And while the UK has some allies on its side, it's going to be very difficult to form a blocking minority in the European Council. Cameron's view on EU politics seems strikingly simplistic - focused on winning over Merkel and co-opting Germany's political weight in Europe. It's hardly a secret that Merkel is lukewarm on a Juncker presidency, but the German media rallied behind Juncker when it was suggested that the UK may be threatening leaving the EU. That the CDU's coalition partners in Berlin, the Social Democrats, were so closely wedded to the presidential campaign meant that the pressure on Merkel to publicly back Juncker was strong within the government too. Rather than working to quietly sideline Juncker behind the scenes, Cameron has made it much harder to get rid of him by forcing public declarations of support or opposition.
All this raises the question: if it's this difficult to block Juncker, how much influence would the UK have in shaping the alternative? A nomination still requires a majority. Even if Italy joins the UK in blocking Juncker (a big if, in my opinion, as Italy will soon have the presidency of the Council for the second half of 2014 and will probably want good relations with the Parliament if it wants to push legislation through), will the blocking minority form a coherent enough bloc vote to be able to shift the rest of the Member States (and for the UK to have a decisive role in that)?
Cameron would probably have done better by quickly getting the European Council to adopt priorities that are closer to his position using the election results as political support. The European Council still sets the overall policy direction of the Union (and Merkel has tried to steer the debate in this direction as a way of finding consensus). But now a Juncker presidency will have been badly burned by the right-wing, British-led, opposition to him, and he will be aware that his political base in the Parliament rests on a coalition with left-wing parties who were needed in order to overcome ECR opposition and any EPP rebellions. The institutional balance and Juncker's own affinity for fellow national leaders will mean that his presidency will focus more on consensus rather than confrontation, but it will be far from a natural ally of the current UK government.
Cameron tends to have a very short-term, tactical approach to politics, particularly when it comes to the EU. The big speech that was supposed to outflank UKIP clearly didn't - in fact, the more the Conservative party echoes UKIP, the better UKIP seems to do. Promising a renegotiation and an in/out referendum on the basis of the result hasn't done much to quiet his party on the matter either (with people now wondering if the referendum date of 2017 will be brought forward to 2016). When wielding the veto in December 2011, Cameron was able to strike the pose of a decisive leader with good Euroskeptic credentials, but the ability of the other countries to go on without the UK ended up showing how devalued a veto can be. (If the UK had taken part in the negotiations while holding on to the veto, it would have been able to shape the agreement and it's potential veto would have carried more weight towards the end of the process). This short-termist thinking is often traced back to Cameron promising to take the Conservatives out of the EPP as part of his platform for the party leadership.
Opposing Juncker's candidacy was always going to be risky. While the campaign might not have been as high profile as some would have wanted, it's difficult to name alternatives from outside the Europarty candidates - Lagarde has ruled herself out, and many of the others are serving Prime Ministers and Presidents. Pascal Lamy, director-general of WTO and formerly the chef de cabinet of Jacques Delors, is hardly a fresher name than Juncker when it comes to EU politics. More importantly, the European Parliament is set on getting one of its candidates in the job, and they can veto any nomination by the European Council. It's difficult to see any of these speculative alternatives giving up their jobs (or present themselves as willing to give up their premierships/presidencies to their national electorates), to place themselves in the middle of a power struggle between the Parliament and the Council.
And while the UK has some allies on its side, it's going to be very difficult to form a blocking minority in the European Council. Cameron's view on EU politics seems strikingly simplistic - focused on winning over Merkel and co-opting Germany's political weight in Europe. It's hardly a secret that Merkel is lukewarm on a Juncker presidency, but the German media rallied behind Juncker when it was suggested that the UK may be threatening leaving the EU. That the CDU's coalition partners in Berlin, the Social Democrats, were so closely wedded to the presidential campaign meant that the pressure on Merkel to publicly back Juncker was strong within the government too. Rather than working to quietly sideline Juncker behind the scenes, Cameron has made it much harder to get rid of him by forcing public declarations of support or opposition.
All this raises the question: if it's this difficult to block Juncker, how much influence would the UK have in shaping the alternative? A nomination still requires a majority. Even if Italy joins the UK in blocking Juncker (a big if, in my opinion, as Italy will soon have the presidency of the Council for the second half of 2014 and will probably want good relations with the Parliament if it wants to push legislation through), will the blocking minority form a coherent enough bloc vote to be able to shift the rest of the Member States (and for the UK to have a decisive role in that)?
Cameron would probably have done better by quickly getting the European Council to adopt priorities that are closer to his position using the election results as political support. The European Council still sets the overall policy direction of the Union (and Merkel has tried to steer the debate in this direction as a way of finding consensus). But now a Juncker presidency will have been badly burned by the right-wing, British-led, opposition to him, and he will be aware that his political base in the Parliament rests on a coalition with left-wing parties who were needed in order to overcome ECR opposition and any EPP rebellions. The institutional balance and Juncker's own affinity for fellow national leaders will mean that his presidency will focus more on consensus rather than confrontation, but it will be far from a natural ally of the current UK government.
Sunday, 25 May 2014
European Elections 2014: Super Sunday Vote Part I
Most of the Member States are holding their polls today - about 21 of them. So there's a lot to get through!
Austria:
Austria is currently governed by a grand coalition, with the Social Democratic SPOe (PES) the senior party and the Christian Democratic OeVP (EPP) the junior party. The far-right Freedom Party, FPOe (NI), has been gaining support in state elections as a party of opposition, while the former party of Jorg Haider, the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZOe) (NI), has tried to take a more liberal turn. Still Euroskeptic, the BZOe now pushes for flat taxes and campaigns against fiscal union in the EU.
The government in Austria has traditionally been a grand coalition (it was believed this would be a better way to govern after the highly divisive politics of the Inter-War period), and this has let the extreme parties grow as main parties of opposition. The Greens have also built up some support as an opposition party on the left.
In terms of MEPs, there have been some interesting moves and defections. Most notably, Angelika Werthmann has joined BZOe and been expelled from ALDE in the European Parliament. Ewald Stadler has set up REKOS, the Reform Conservatives, a Euroskeptic party that will sit with the EFD group in Parliament, and Martin Ehrenhauser has set up Europa Anders (Different Europe), a left-wing group that includes Communists and the Pirate Party. Team Stronach, a party set up by an Austro-Canadian businessman, won't be contesting the European elections.
A new liberal party aligned with ALDE, NEOS, will contest the elections and has been doing well with about 10% in the polls.
Overall it looks like the two main parties will hold their leading position, but the Freedom Party will make a strong showing of about 20%.
Current polls:
SPOe (PES): 25%
OeVP (EPP): 26%
BZOe (NI): 1-2%
FPOe (NI): 20%
Greens: 13%
NEOS (ALDE): 10%
REKOS (EFD): 1%
Europa Anders (NI): 2%
Germany:
Germany had its federal election back in September 2013 which led to a big victory for Angela Merkel's CDU-CSU (EPP) and to a grand coalition government with the Social Democrats (PES). Germany has been one of the more engaged Member States in the European elections, with two head-to-head debates between Juncker and Schulz on national TV (most recently on ARD, the public broadcaster). It will be interesting to see how the new AfD, which is an economically right-wing and anti-Euro party, will do. The liberal FDP was thrown out of the Bundestag in the federal election and now looks to be surpassed by the AfD in the polls.
An important factor this time around is the threshold to win seats in the EP. The Constitutional Court has done away with the 5% vote threshold and also the subsequent 3% threshold, so now it's much easier to win a seat. Germany is a single constituency for the European elections.
This will make the elections interesting - the FDP are hovering around 3%, while the AfD are around 7%. More worryingly is the idea that one of the far-right parties such as the NPD or Die Republikaner might do well. The question of immigration and control has crept into German politics, particularly the CSU, the Bavarian sister-party to Merkel's CDU (which is increasingly taking a stance against the Transfer Union within Germany), and this has been taken up by the AfD too.
Current polls:
CDU/CSU (EPP): 38%
SDP (PES): 27%
FDP (ALDE): 3%
Greens: 10%
Die Linke (UEL): 8%
AfD: 7%
Belgium:
Belgium is divided into linguistic constituencies: French, Dutch and German-speaking, and the federal and linguistic community based nature of the Belgian constitution and political system follows this. There are social democratic, Christian democratic, liberal, Green, etc. parties that are French or Dutch-speaking, leading to a complex party-political system where it famously takes ages to form a government. (The current government, led by Social Democrat Di Rupo, holds the record for the longest formation time).
From the polls it looks like the Flemish separatists could top the poll and an far-right Flemish party, Vlaams Belang, might do well with around 8%.
Current polls (from April):
Flemish Christian Democrats (EPP): 10% (winners of the 2009 election, would be down from 14%)
Parti socialiste (PES): 10%
SP.A (PES): 9%
Vlaams Belang (NI): 8%
Ecolo (Green): 4%
Groen (Green): 5%
Open Vld (ALDE): 12%
Mouvement Reformateur (ALDE): 8%
New Flemish Alliance (European Free Alliance - sits with the Green Group in the EP): 20%
Worker's Party of Belgium: 3%
Christian Social Party (German-speaking): 0.2%
Greece:
The country hardest-hit from austerity and the home country of Presidential candidate Alexis Tsipras (UEL), it looks like the far-left will top the polls here. A big concern will be whether the neo-fascist Golden Dawn (XA) capture a sizable share of the vote. A new party called The River, a pro-European centre to centre-left party, was launched in March and is on about 8%.
Current polls:
Olive Tree Greece (PES): 7%
New Democracy (EPP) (senior governing party): 25%
Communist PArty (UEL): 6%
SYRIZA (UEL - Tsipras' party): 29%
Golden Dawn: 9%
Independent Greeks (conservatives/Euroskeptics): 3-4%
Democratic Left (S&D group in the EP): 2-3%
The River: 8%
Hungary:
The conservative Fidesz party (EPP) dominates Hungarian politics and has been controversially redrawing the country's constitution, bringing it into conflict with the EU, which has had concerns over the freedom of press and the independence of the judiciary. The opposition Socialists (PES) are predicted to come third behind the far-right Jobbik Party. The Greens may also win a seat.
Italy:
Italy's politics have been shaken up by Grillo's Five Star Movement and the constant scandals from former Prime Minister Berlusconi. The senior governing party, the Democratic Party (PES), have recently ousted their previous Prime Minister, Letta, and replaced him with their party leader, the former Florence mayor Matteo Renzi. It looks like the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement are going to do well, with Berlusconi's Forza Italia (EPP) coming third.
There is a 4% threshold to enter Parliament, with guaranteed representation for the German-speaking minority of South Tyrol.
Current polls:
Forza Italia (EPP): 18%
Democratic Party (PES): 34%
Northern League (EFD): 5%
Five Star Movement (NI): 24%
Alternative Europe - with Tsipras (UEL): 4%
Brothers of Italy (EPP): 3.6%
New Centre Right (EPP): 5.5%
Romania:
I wasn't really able to find out much information on the Romanian poll, but here are the current polls from PollWatch 2014:
Social Democratic Union (PES): 40%
National Liberal Party (ALDE): 15%
Liberal Democratic Party (EPP): 13%
People's Movement Party (EPP): 9.3%
Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (EPP): 5.6%
Forta Civica (EPP): 5%
People's Party - Dan Diaconescu (NI): 4%
Austria:
Austria is currently governed by a grand coalition, with the Social Democratic SPOe (PES) the senior party and the Christian Democratic OeVP (EPP) the junior party. The far-right Freedom Party, FPOe (NI), has been gaining support in state elections as a party of opposition, while the former party of Jorg Haider, the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZOe) (NI), has tried to take a more liberal turn. Still Euroskeptic, the BZOe now pushes for flat taxes and campaigns against fiscal union in the EU.
The government in Austria has traditionally been a grand coalition (it was believed this would be a better way to govern after the highly divisive politics of the Inter-War period), and this has let the extreme parties grow as main parties of opposition. The Greens have also built up some support as an opposition party on the left.
In terms of MEPs, there have been some interesting moves and defections. Most notably, Angelika Werthmann has joined BZOe and been expelled from ALDE in the European Parliament. Ewald Stadler has set up REKOS, the Reform Conservatives, a Euroskeptic party that will sit with the EFD group in Parliament, and Martin Ehrenhauser has set up Europa Anders (Different Europe), a left-wing group that includes Communists and the Pirate Party. Team Stronach, a party set up by an Austro-Canadian businessman, won't be contesting the European elections.
A new liberal party aligned with ALDE, NEOS, will contest the elections and has been doing well with about 10% in the polls.
Overall it looks like the two main parties will hold their leading position, but the Freedom Party will make a strong showing of about 20%.
Current polls:
SPOe (PES): 25%
OeVP (EPP): 26%
BZOe (NI): 1-2%
FPOe (NI): 20%
Greens: 13%
NEOS (ALDE): 10%
REKOS (EFD): 1%
Europa Anders (NI): 2%
Germany:
Germany had its federal election back in September 2013 which led to a big victory for Angela Merkel's CDU-CSU (EPP) and to a grand coalition government with the Social Democrats (PES). Germany has been one of the more engaged Member States in the European elections, with two head-to-head debates between Juncker and Schulz on national TV (most recently on ARD, the public broadcaster). It will be interesting to see how the new AfD, which is an economically right-wing and anti-Euro party, will do. The liberal FDP was thrown out of the Bundestag in the federal election and now looks to be surpassed by the AfD in the polls.
An important factor this time around is the threshold to win seats in the EP. The Constitutional Court has done away with the 5% vote threshold and also the subsequent 3% threshold, so now it's much easier to win a seat. Germany is a single constituency for the European elections.
This will make the elections interesting - the FDP are hovering around 3%, while the AfD are around 7%. More worryingly is the idea that one of the far-right parties such as the NPD or Die Republikaner might do well. The question of immigration and control has crept into German politics, particularly the CSU, the Bavarian sister-party to Merkel's CDU (which is increasingly taking a stance against the Transfer Union within Germany), and this has been taken up by the AfD too.
Current polls:
CDU/CSU (EPP): 38%
SDP (PES): 27%
FDP (ALDE): 3%
Greens: 10%
Die Linke (UEL): 8%
AfD: 7%
Belgium:
Belgium is divided into linguistic constituencies: French, Dutch and German-speaking, and the federal and linguistic community based nature of the Belgian constitution and political system follows this. There are social democratic, Christian democratic, liberal, Green, etc. parties that are French or Dutch-speaking, leading to a complex party-political system where it famously takes ages to form a government. (The current government, led by Social Democrat Di Rupo, holds the record for the longest formation time).
From the polls it looks like the Flemish separatists could top the poll and an far-right Flemish party, Vlaams Belang, might do well with around 8%.
Current polls (from April):
Flemish Christian Democrats (EPP): 10% (winners of the 2009 election, would be down from 14%)
Parti socialiste (PES): 10%
SP.A (PES): 9%
Vlaams Belang (NI): 8%
Ecolo (Green): 4%
Groen (Green): 5%
Open Vld (ALDE): 12%
Mouvement Reformateur (ALDE): 8%
New Flemish Alliance (European Free Alliance - sits with the Green Group in the EP): 20%
Worker's Party of Belgium: 3%
Christian Social Party (German-speaking): 0.2%
Greece:
The country hardest-hit from austerity and the home country of Presidential candidate Alexis Tsipras (UEL), it looks like the far-left will top the polls here. A big concern will be whether the neo-fascist Golden Dawn (XA) capture a sizable share of the vote. A new party called The River, a pro-European centre to centre-left party, was launched in March and is on about 8%.
Current polls:
Olive Tree Greece (PES): 7%
New Democracy (EPP) (senior governing party): 25%
Communist PArty (UEL): 6%
SYRIZA (UEL - Tsipras' party): 29%
Golden Dawn: 9%
Independent Greeks (conservatives/Euroskeptics): 3-4%
Democratic Left (S&D group in the EP): 2-3%
The River: 8%
Hungary:
The conservative Fidesz party (EPP) dominates Hungarian politics and has been controversially redrawing the country's constitution, bringing it into conflict with the EU, which has had concerns over the freedom of press and the independence of the judiciary. The opposition Socialists (PES) are predicted to come third behind the far-right Jobbik Party. The Greens may also win a seat.
Italy:
Italy's politics have been shaken up by Grillo's Five Star Movement and the constant scandals from former Prime Minister Berlusconi. The senior governing party, the Democratic Party (PES), have recently ousted their previous Prime Minister, Letta, and replaced him with their party leader, the former Florence mayor Matteo Renzi. It looks like the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement are going to do well, with Berlusconi's Forza Italia (EPP) coming third.
There is a 4% threshold to enter Parliament, with guaranteed representation for the German-speaking minority of South Tyrol.
Current polls:
Forza Italia (EPP): 18%
Democratic Party (PES): 34%
Northern League (EFD): 5%
Five Star Movement (NI): 24%
Alternative Europe - with Tsipras (UEL): 4%
Brothers of Italy (EPP): 3.6%
New Centre Right (EPP): 5.5%
Romania:
I wasn't really able to find out much information on the Romanian poll, but here are the current polls from PollWatch 2014:
Social Democratic Union (PES): 40%
National Liberal Party (ALDE): 15%
Liberal Democratic Party (EPP): 13%
People's Movement Party (EPP): 9.3%
Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (EPP): 5.6%
Forta Civica (EPP): 5%
People's Party - Dan Diaconescu (NI): 4%
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