Showing posts with label Ireland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ireland. Show all posts

Friday, 22 May 2015

Marriage equity in Ireland: Referendum Day



Today Ireland votes in a referendum that’s the world’s first, on same sex marriage. It’s a shockingly quick liberalisation for a country that only decriminalised homosexuality in 1993, but the last 20 years has seen scandal after scandal in the Catholic Church, which has fallen from its once unassailable position of moral authority to an institution too damaged to campaign prominently against equal marriage.

The referendum is being held because Ireland’s constitution charges the state with protecting the institution of marriage. Opinion is divided on whether the referendum is legally required to permit equal marriage as the constitution doesn’t define marriage as being between a man and a woman, but merely that it is defended as an institution. In the end the government erred on the side of caution and called a referendum to ensure that a move to equal marriage wouldn’t be struck down by the courts.

The Catholic Church still opposes the change and is preaching its message in churches across the country, but its conservative Catholic civil society groups that have led the opposition in practice. The argument against centres around children, with the No campaign arguing that children need a mother and a father. However, same sex couples in civil partnerships (brought in in 2010/2011) already have the right to adopt and raise children so the Yes campaign has tried – unsuccessfully – to shut this down as an argument. As many have pointed out, the No campaign’s stance on marriage being for reproduction and its insistence on the ideal family is potentially alienating for people who aren’t LGBT but who nevertheless don’t fit into the ideal.

Currently the Yes side is polling very strongly, with the No campaign only making a slight inroads over the last month. But it’s turnout that is likely to be key. It’s widely accepted that No voters are more motivated to come out and vote, whereas the mass of Yes voters may feel that their side is assured a victory and therefore it’s not quite as important to vote (and many of them may not have a lot personally riding on the result). There are also worries that there may be a “shy Tory” effect after the British elections – if people were too reticent to admit to voting Conservative in Britain, then there may be many in Ireland that have misgivings about voting Yes, but are too embarrassed to admit that they plan to vote No.

Whichever way the vote goes, the referendum is a milestone event in the birth of liberal Ireland, but marriage equality would not only be a powerful statement of the strength of modern Ireland – more importantly it will bring greater equality to the LGBT community and, after a long period of persecution, allow them to build loving families in Irish society.

Friday, 23 May 2014

European elections 2014: Ireland and the Czech Republic

Day two of the polls now, and Ireland and the Czech Republic are voting. The Czech Republic will have its polls open for two days, Friday and Saturday, to give people more opportunity to vote.


Ireland:

The crisis-hit country recently came out of the bail-out programme as the poster-boy for austerity, but despite the resignation to budget cuts the policy hasn't been popular. When the last government fell due to the bail out in 2011, the governing Fianna Fáil party (ALDE) was trashed at the polls. FF is still blamed for the crisis (it was the senior party in government from 1998-2011), but has made a slight recovery in the polls as the Fine Gael-Labour (EPP-PES) government continued the bail-out programme left by FF.

Sinn Féin (UEL) seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the government's unpopularity. Though its leader Gerry Adams was arrested and questioned a few weeks ago in connection with an IRA killing (he was released without charge) and Sinn Féin's connection with the Provisional IRA during the Troubles is still a problem for its image in the Republic of Ireland, the party has a strong front bench that helps promote the party. It is likely to make gains at the expense of the Socialist Party's single MEP, Paul Murphy, in Dublin and at the expense of Labour generally. As the junior, centre-left, party in government, Labour is bearing the brunt of popular discontent with the government and may be lucky to retain 1 out of its 3 current MEPs.

Ireland is one of the few Member States to be divided into constituencies (Dublin, Midlands-North-West, and South) and are run on a Single Transferable Vote system (Northern Ireland also has this system while the rest of the UK has a closed list system). This means that voters can list the candidates in order of preference, so party loyalty or preference can be trumped by a strong personal vote. One candidate, Ming Flanagan, is an independent who has campaigned against the impact of EU rules on turf-cutting, which has been an emotive issue for the countryside. Flanagan is already a sitting TD (MP), and if he's elected his nominated replacement might be the one to actually take the seat.

The Irish political party system is still in flux with FF still far from its once dominant position. Throw in personal votes, the possibility for competition between candidates of the same party, and the redrawing of constituency boundaries (bringing 4 constituencies down to 3), and there'll be an interesting battle or two in each part of the country.

The Irish Times gives a good run-down of the three constituencies and the issues in each one if you want to dig deeper:

Dublin
Midlands-North-West
South


Czech Republic:

The Czech Republic had a general election last year, resulting in a coalition government between the Social Democratic CSSD (PES), the break-out new party of the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens ANO and the Christian and Democratic Union (EPP). ANO's rise was the biggest shock to the system - founded and led by millionaire Andrej Babis, the centre-right party won 47 seats and became the second-biggest party in the parliament and in government. ANO has the strange position of opposing Euro membership for the Czech Republic and greater integration generally, but they are supporting the Liberal candidate and outspoken federalist, Guy Verhofstadt, for the Commission Presidency (Babis has since said that he's open on the question of Euro membership).

The Civic Democrats are running a petition against Euro membership, though ironically it appears that their membership is one of the most supportive of the Czech parties of joining the Euro.

CSSD and ANO don't appear to have been in government long enough for the anti-incumbent effect to take over - both parties are leading the others in the polls. There is a 5% threshold that parties have to pass in order to win seats in the elections.

Current polls:

CSSD (PES): 23%
ANO (ALDE): 25%
Communist Party (Party of the European Left [observer]): 11%
TOP09 (EPP): 8%
Civic Democrats (AECR): 6%
Christian and Democratic Party (EPP): 6%