Is the European Left riding high?

Coming second in the European elections was a very bad result for the centre-left across Europe: after years of austerity and the Eurocrisis, and the PES spurring the Spitzenkadidaten process, the S&D group in the Parliament are still 30 seats behind the EPP. However the need for a Grand Coalition to propel Juncker into office has provided an opening for the left, and, like the Grand Coalition in Germany, the essential status quo stance of the biggest party gives the junior partner greater scope for pushing its agenda.

This seems to be the case when it comes to important EU posts. With Juncker as Commission President, there is a domestic German deal to support Martin Schulz as Parliament president for another 2.5 years (with the EPP taking the post for the remaining half of the parliamentary term). Two of the front runners for President of the European Council and the High Representative are Helle Thorning-Schmidt (Danish PM) and Federica Mogherini (Italian Foreign Minister) - to the extent that the EPP are protesting that the PES can't have 3 of the top EU posts. Really, the PES would be wise to go for an economic post over the High Representative position: the presidency of the European Council will be important for negotiations over how the Eurozone will be run, while the PES hasn't a very strong position on European foreign policy (if one of Italy's priorities is immigration, then the Home Affairs Commissioner might be a better position to angle for).

Given the complexity of the EU system, any agreement on policy between the Member States would be hard to stick to, so it's important for the left to win offices that are relevant to their policy goals on the economy. This will be hard to do since it depends on the nominations from the Member States, the negotiations over posts, Juncker's own plans and how the candidates fair in the European Parliament vetting process. There's already plans to revisit the Eurozone budget rules and a deal to soften deficit reduction in return for reforms, so with Italy in the Council driving seat for the rest of the year it appears that the centre-left might have a window of opportunity to push for change.

In the end, however, the lack of agreement over the policy aims of the ECB or even on some form of Transfer Union will mean that the actual scope of opportunity is very narrow indeed. And the broader problems of the centre-left are deep: the fracturing of the old electoral coalition as the economy has become less industrialised, coupled with the decline of two-party politics in most Member States, has left centre-left parties in a difficult position. Uncertain about their domestic support and (to date) largely ineffectual in generating a public debate over a more socially minded Eurozone with greater fiscal firepower, any success over the next few month is in danger of being momentary.

The left in Europe still has a tough task to rebuild itself and shouldn't be seduced into believing that they're in a good position. Europe's centre-right may be more open to some centre-left ideas than you might think at first glance, and they could be well placed to continue capturing centrist and some soft centre-left votes. The centre-left needs to rediscover its voice and identity combined with a platform of reform if it wants to return a a vote - and power - winning force.

State of the political groups

The various national political parties in the European Parliament have had until today to form political groups: by allying with parties from at least 7 other Member States with a minimum of 25 MEPs between them, they are entitled to EU funding and are in a better position to get good seats on parliamentary committees. For the mainstream groups of the Socialists and Democrats, the European People's Party, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats and the European Greens-European Free Alliance, there has been little change, with most of the movement on the right of the political spectrum.

Current group positions:

EPP: 221
S&D: 191
ECR: 68
ALDE: 67
UEL: 52
Greens: 50
EFD: 48
Non-Attached: 43
[The EP still lists 11 as "others", so they might join a political group yet and possibly change the rankings again].

The Europe of Freedom and Democracy has managed to reform. The grouping that Nigel Farage led in the last Parliament looked like it might be squeezed between the European Conservatives and Reformists and the new far-right alliance of Le Pen and Geert Wilders, but in the end enough MEPs from different countries were found. The biggest gain for the EFD was the membership of the Five Star Movement, which had been considering joining the Greens. The EFD has grown from 32 to 48 MEPs despite the change in membership (the Danish People's Party has left for the ECR) and the reduction in total EP seats, and it remains the smallest group.

The European Conservatives and Reformists have been the biggest winners from this group reshuffle. From being the fifth group in size, behind the Greens, in the last Parliament, the ECR is set to edge out the Liberals as the third biggest group (growing from 54 to 68 MEPs). This should be a big boost to its political weight in the EP, but it's unlikely that it will win the EP Presidency given the likely EPP-PES deal to take turns over the post. The ECR attracted the Eurozone-skeptic AfD and the Danish People's Party, along with a smattering of other individual MEPs. It's possible that this intake could shift the ECR in a more national-conservative direction, so while the group may be founded on a free market platform, this could start to take a back seat to concerns over free movement of people and cultural issues. This might depend on how far the AfD takes a socially conservative direction and whether it can retain a free market outlook. It will be interesting to see if the ECR will "detoxify" the Danish People's Party, or if they will toxify the ECR...

The United European Left grouping has also boosted its numbers from 35 to 52, with the Spanish party Podemos. EUObserver reports that the group is split between those that are anti-EU and those who favour more integration to solve economic and social issues (it seems that Podemos leans towards federalism). Meanwhile the Le Pen-Wilders project for a far-right alliance has failed to bring together enough MEPs from across the EU to form a political group. For now the Front National and the PVV will sit as Non-Attached.

For the EPP and S&D, little has changed. The German delegation is the largest now in the EPP and the S&D's biggest delegation will be Italian, but apart from that there doesn't seem to be any major changes. Likewise ALDE and the Greens have not had any major additions or losses in the re-shuffle - which could be seen as both groups having settled identities (any liberal/Green party that could join probably is already aligned with them).

Over this splintered Parliament it looks like Martin Schulz will re-take the President's chair as part of the coalition between the EPP and S&D. It remains to be seen if the Grand Coalition will stick together on the big issues or if it will only stay in place as a deal over the top posts.

Towards a New Europe - the PES manifesto

The centre-left Party of European Socialists is the next of the big two that's in with a chance of winning the European election. Their manifesto is also on their candidate's, Martin Schulz's, website. You can find the manifesto here (PDF). While the European Parliament has shifting coalitions from issue to issue (there may be a right-wing coalition on the economy one day, a left-wing one on civil liberties, for example), the centre-right EPP has been the biggest party in the Parliament for the last 5 years and has also been dominant in the Council and Commission. So the PES is approaching this election as the opposition, presenting itself as an alternative to the current political direction of the EU - hence the title of the manifesto: "Towards a New Europe".

On the economy, employment is the biggest issue for the PES, which says it has a long-term commitment to full employment. During the last Parliament it campaigned for a Youth Guarantee plan, and it pledges to increase its budget and extend it to everyone under 30. It wants a European industrial policy to support SMEs, and to increase protections for workers posted in other Member States by revising the Posting of Workers Directive. The PES wants decent minimum wages introduced across Europe through legislation or collective bargaining (the mix is probably a concession to the different national traditions - so I wonder how much this would translate into actual legislation or practical policy). As part of its idea of Social Union, the PES wants binding targets on employment, education and social cohesion.

Unsurprisingly, the PES condemns the "austerity-only" policy and wants more investments through national budgets. It's not clear if this simply means pushing for investment programmes to be a part of national budgets or if it should be something more co-ordinated. The PES wants the European Parliament to have a greater say in Eurozone economic and fiscal policy. When it comes to the financial sector, PES, which campaigned for a Financial Transaction Tax, says it will push for earlier implementation, bring in further regulations and create an independent and public European Credit Rating agency.

The PES reiterates its support for non-discrimination, integration and participation policies for immigration and asylum, and striking the right balance between privacy, security and freedom. However, there is little in the form of policy proposals here.

On the environment, the PES support further binding emissions targets and the use of Project Bonds to finance investments in renewable energy and technology. The PES wants to guarantee minimum access to energy for everyone in order to fight energy poverty.

The strongest themes of the PES manifestos are clearly in the areas of the economy and social justice, with some ideas on green policies. Justice and home affairs is its weakest point when it comes to proposals. If you want a more "social Europe" and support greater regulation of the financial sector, then the PES could be the party for you.