The Bulc Question: a good pick for the Commission?

When the Slovenian candidate to become the Commissioner for Energy Union and a Vice President of the Commission, Alenka Bratusek, was overwhelmingly rejected by the European Parliament's industry and environment committees, the Socialists and Democrats were quick to signal their support for the Socialist MEP Tanja Fajon as her replacement. The EPP also backed Fajon as she was the second choice of the Slovenian government over the summer.

The problem with this was that there has been a change of government in the meantime, with a completely new political party sweeping into office. The new Prime Minister, Miro Cerar, condemned the cross-party backing for the Socialist MEP as meddling with the decision of a national government, and selected a political newcomer Violeta Bulc as Bratusek's replacement.

Bulc has only briefly been a minister in Cerar's newly-formed government, and a minister for Development, Strategic Projects and Cohesion. She has experience as a businesswoman (EUObserver reports that she has also trained as a shaman and firewalker - she went to the Shamanic Academy in Scotland in 2008 [PDF]), but no really relevant policy experience for the portfolio of Energy Union. In fact, it's hard to get a grip on what her business experience is actually in, although the word "innovation" is mentioned a lot. Since Bratusek was rejected due to her terrible performance when grilled by MEPs, it seems odd to pick someone with less political experience, but then Cerar's party was only formed just before the Slovenian elections earlier this year in June, and Cerar himself is new to the political game.

And now it also looks like the opposition is pressing for an anti-corruption investigation into Bulc's nomination as her nomination was only passed by the Slovenian government due to a procedural rule which permits absent ministers' vote to be counted in favour of a motion. Bratusek herself was brought down as Prime Minister by the anti-corruption commission, and nominated herself as commission candidate before she was kicked out of office.

In the Parliament the Socialists have backed off slightly, stating that it will be Bulc's performance in Parliament that will matter and that they will only reject her if her performance is worse than Bratusek's. But with opinions of Bulc already low and her nomination subject to domestic political battles, the focus should still be on whether or not she's up to the job.

It is unlikely that Bulc will get the Energy Union post and there will probably be a small reshuffle of the posts to take into account how the candidates have been received by Parliament. Currently the Education, Culture, Youth and Citizenship portfolio, which was controversially given to Hungarian candidate Tibor Navracsis, is the favourite as it will allow Juncker to shuffle Navracsis away to a less contentious post. Fajon, too, had little experience when it came to energy union, but as an MEP since 2009 who has been a member of the Parliament's Civi Liberities, Justice and Home Affairs Committee, she has more policy experience for the tipped new portfolio than Bulc.

Cerar is right that the nomination is Slovenia's choice and not the Parliament's, even if Parliament can reject her as part of the proposed Commission, but has he made the less credible pick? It certainly looks like that way at the moment, but the parliamentary hearing will be the big test for Bulc.

European Elections 2014: Super Sunday Vote Part III

We're on our final stretch of our tour round the voting Member States today.

Sweden:

Sweden is currently governed from the centre-right, with the Moderate Party leading the government. With national elections coming up in September, there have been worries that the far-right (Swedish Democrats) and far-left (Left Party) stand to gain votes and seats, and the European elections is being seen as a dry-run for the national elections.

Current Polls:

Social Democratic Worker's Party (PES): 30%
Centre Party (ALDE): 4%
Liberal Party (ALDE): 9%
Environment Party (Greens): 12%
Swedish Democrats (NI): 7%
Christian Democrats (EPP): 4%
Left Party (UEL): 7%
Moderate Party (EPP): 20%


Slovenia:

Slovenia is a Eurozone country that has fallen into economic difficulties and there have been concerns that it may need to be bailed out - it has had to recapitalise its banks with €3 billion. The centre-right parties look like they are set to win the election in a landslide, so Slovenia can be counted as being firmly in the EPP bracket of parliamentary arithmetic.

Current Polls:

Democratic Party (EPP): 27%
Social Democrats (PES): 9%
Christian People's Party (EPP): 21%
Positive Slovenia (ALDE): 5.5%
Liberal Democrats (ALDE): 7%
Democratic Party of Pensioners (NI): 4.6%
Slovenian National Party (NI): 4%
List Verjamem (NI): 12%
United Left (UEL): 4%


Cyprus:

Cyprus is one of the latest countries to be hit by the Eurocrisis, and the first country to have a "bail-in", with depositors hit by the losses of the banks. The Democratic Rally (EPP) won the presidential elections in February 2013 (the post was previously held by the communist Progressive Party of Working People [AKEL]), and they are currently leading in the polls by a wide margin.

Current Polls:

Democratic Rally (EPP): 38%
AKEL (UEL): 24%
Democratic Party (PES): 12%
Citizen's Alliance Party (NI): 7%
Movement for Social Democracy (PES): 9%


Lithuania:

The Social Democratic Party has led the government since the general election in 2012, and the Lithuanian government ran the Council presidency in the second half of 2013. Lithuania's most recognisable politician is probably its independent president, Dalia Grybauskaité, who has been dubbed the Iron Lady. The Social Democrats are on course for a convincing win judging by the polls on PollWatch 2014.

Current Polls:

Social Democratic Party (PES): 38%
Homeland Party (EPP): 10%
Labour Party (ALDE): 11%
Liberal Movement (ALDE): 9%
Order and Justice (EFD): 14%
Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania (AECR): 5%
Peasants and Greens (NI): 5%


Estonia:

Estonia is a small Eurozone country of about 1.3 million, but it has 6 main parties in its parliament. An independent aligned with the Greens is running and is predicted to win a seat. It looks like the Liberal ALDE group will win half the seats in Estonia.

Current Poll:

Centre Party (ALDE): 20%
Reform Party (ALDE): 18%
Res Publica (EPP): 17%
Social Democratic Party (PES): 18%
Indrek Tarand (Independent/Greens): 14%


Finland:

Finland is another stronghold for the Liberals (along with Estonia and the Netherlands). However, the EPP and the far-right True Finns are expected to do well in these elections. The True Finns (or the Finns Party) have increased their profile through the opposition to bail outs within the Eurozone. Finland, along with The Netherlands and Germany, tend to take a hard pro-austerity line as a trade-off for bail-outs.

Current Polls:

National Coalition Party (EPP): 23%
True Finns (EFD): 21%
Centre Party (ALDE): 14%
Social Democratic Party (PES): 13%
Green League (Greens): 11%
Left Alliance (UEL): 8%
Swedish People's Party (ALDE): 4%
Christian Democrats (EPP): 3.5%


Luxembourg:

One of the smallest Member States, but its former Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker is heading the EPP campaign as the candidate for the Commission Presidency. Juncker lost the general election in 2013, where the Christian Social People's Party were the biggest party, but the opposition parties won enough seats to form a coalition and oust the government.

Current Polls:

Christian Social People's Party (EPP): 34%
Luxembourg Socialist Worker's Party (PES): 20%
Democratic Party (ALDE): 18%
Greens: 10%
Alternative Democratic Reform Party (NI): 7%
The Left (UEL): 5%